EIA expects gasoline demand to increase by nearly 1% in 2015 (2/11/2015)

This Week in Petroleum

Wednesday, 31 December 1969

Release date: February 11, 2015 | Next release date: February 19, 2015

In the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts motor gasoline consumption in 2015 to increase by 80,000 barrels/day (bbl/d), or 0.9% (Figure 1). Forecast growth in highway travel, which is attributable to increases in population, employment, and disposable income, and retail gasoline prices substantially below those in 2014, more than offset improvements in the fuel economy of the vehicle fleet. All other things equal, lower gasoline prices increase gasoline demand. Although the impact of gasoline price changes on demand grows over time as fuel prices affect consumers' vehicle purchase decisions and where they choose to live, which affects commuting distances, the short-term impact of prices on gasoline demand is quite modest. EIA's STEO uses a short-term price elasticity of -0.033—for every 10% decrease in the price of gasoline there is a corresponding short-term 0.33% increase in gasoline consumption. With average gasoline prices forecast to be 31% lower in 2015 than in 2014, this elasticity suggests that lower prices alone will increase short-term gasoline demand by about 1%.

Expected gasoline prices are closely tied to crude oil prices. As oil prices have sharply declined, market expectations of uncertainty in the price outlook have increased, as reflected in the current values of futures and options contracts (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report).

The February STEO forecast for North Sea Brent crude, the type of crude oil to which U.S. gasoline prices are most closely linked, is largely unchanged from last month, averaging $58/bbl in 2015. EIA's forecast for retail gasoline prices, which is subject to the high uncertainty in the outlook for oil prices, averages $2.33/gallon (gal) in 2015, $1.03/gal less than the 2014 average (Figure 2). After falling for 17 weeks in a row, U.S. regular retail gasoline prices began to increaseby February 2, and through February 9 are up a total of $0.15/gal. Falling crude oil prices and high inventories of gasoline had contributed to the decline in U.S. weekly regular gasoline retail prices to an average of $2.04/gal on January 28, the lowest weekly price since April 6, 2009.

In 2016, EIA projects motor gasoline demand to decline by 50,000 bbl/d (0.5%) as the annual average retail gasoline price is projected to increase by 17% compared with 2015. The $2.73/gal forecast average gasoline price in 2016, 0.64/gal below the 2014 average, is consistent with a forecast in which the average price of Brent rises to $75/bbl in 2016.

Gasoline prices increase, diesel fuel price changes mixed

The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased by 12 cents from the previous week to $2.19 per gallon as of February 9, 2015, $1.12 per gallon less than the same time last year. Prices in all regions increased this week, with the West Coast up 15 cents to $2.47 per gallon, followed by the Midwest price, which increased 14 cents to $2.17 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price rose 12 cents to $1.98 per gallon, and the East Coast price was up ten cents to $2.19 per gallon. The Rocky Mountain price rose eight cents to $1.95 per gallon.

The U.S. average price for diesel fuel increased less than half a cent from a week ago to $2.84 per gallon, $1.14 per gallon less than the same time last year. Regional price movements were mixed. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices fell one cent, to $2.76 per gallon and $2.78 per gallon, respectively. The East Coast price was down less than half a cent to $2.93 per gallon. The West Coast price increased by four cents to $2.92 per gallon, and the Midwest price rose less than half a cent to $2.77 per gallon.

Propane inventories fall

U.S. propane stocks decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week to 65.0 million barrels as of February 6, 2015, 37.1 million barrels (132.8%) higher than a year ago. Gulf Coast and East Coast inventories both decreased by 0.7 million barrels. Midwest inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 6.3% of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil price increases while residential propane price decreases

As of February 9, 2015, residential heating oil prices averaged $2.91 per gallon, 11 cents per gallon higher than last week, and $1.33 per gallon less than last year's price for the same week. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged less than $1.98 per gallon, almost 15 cents per gallon higher than last week and nearly $1.47 per gallon lower when compared to the same time last year.

Residential propane prices averaged $2.36 per gallon, about 1 cent per gallon lower than last week, and $1.40 per gallon less than the price at the same time last year. The average wholesale propane price increased by almost 6 cents per gallon this week to just under 67 cents per gallon, $1.94 per gallon lower than the February 10, 2014 price.